Gilbert Burns vs Jason Saggo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record13-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach71,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamWulfrun MMA
What's at stake
Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Saggo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1756
If they lose-14→ 1732
If they win+19→ 1700
If they lose-13→ 1668
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsJason Saggo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gilbert Burns82%
Jason Saggo 18%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 82% favorite over Jason Saggo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1746 to 1681, a 65-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Jason Saggo 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.