Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Jason Saggo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record13-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach71,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamWulfrun MMA

What's at stake

Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Saggo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+10→ 1754
If they lose-14→ 1730
Jason SaggoNow 1675
If they win+19→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
2.50
48%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
52%
Strike defense
52%
2.12
Takedown avg.
2.33
38%
Takedown accuracy
40%
54%
Takedown defense
23%
0.46
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsJason Saggo
16501700175018002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
9 (41%)
Submission
9 (69%)
7 (32%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns78%
Jason Saggo 22%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 78% favorite over Jason Saggo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1675, a 69-point edge.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Jason Saggo 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.