Gilbert Melendez vs Josh Thomson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-8-0Record22-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
73,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight153 lbs
Skrap PackTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1638 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Gilbert Melendez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Josh Thomson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1750
If they lose-14→ 1726
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-10→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert MelendezJosh Thomson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gilbert Melendez72%
Josh Thomson 28%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Melendez a 72% favorite over Josh Thomson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Gilbert Melendez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1685, a 55-point edge.
Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Melendez finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Josh Thomson 73%.
Gilbert Melendez and Josh Thomson share 1 common opponent: Benson Henderson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.