Gilbert Smith vs Ozzy Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record10-5-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team VictoryTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1674 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert SmithOzzy Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ozzy Diaz61%
Gilbert Smith 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ozzy Diaz a 61% favorite over Gilbert Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gilbert Smith's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1612), separated by just 0 points.
Ozzy Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Smith finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.