Grant Dawson vs Jared Gordon
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record21-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jared Gordon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1809
If they lose-16→ 1785
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-8→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1702 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonJared Gordon
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson81%
Jared Gordon 19%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 81% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1801 to 1675, a 126-point edge.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Jared Gordon 48%.
Grant Dawson and Jared Gordon share 3 common opponents: Rafa García, Joe Solecki and Mark Madsen.
Grant Dawson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.