Combat Edge Intelligence

Grant Dawson vs Julian Erosa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-3-1Record31-13-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'1"
72"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Julian Erosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+8→ 1810
If they lose-16→ 1786
Julian ErosaNow 1695
If they win+16→ 1711
If they lose-8→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.21
Sig. strikes / min
6.21
52%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.27
45%
Strike defense
49%
3.81
Takedown avg.
1.78
40%
Takedown accuracy
44%
57%
Takedown defense
62%
1.12
Submission avg.
0.73

Trajectory

Grant DawsonJulian Erosa
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (21%)
KO/TKO
12 (39%)
14 (58%)
Submission
14 (45%)
5 (21%)
Decision
5 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson84%
Julian Erosa 16%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 84% favorite over Julian Erosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1695, a 107-point edge.

Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Julian Erosa 84%.

Julian Erosa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.