Combat Edge Intelligence

Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Gamrot

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-3-1Record26-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790
Mateusz GamrotNow 1810
If they win+12→ 1822
If they lose-12→ 1798

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1752 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
51%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
45%
Strike defense
60%
3.58
Takedown avg.
5.22
0%
Takedown accuracy
9%
67%
Takedown defense
83%
1.36
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Grant DawsonMateusz Gamrot
18001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (21%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
14 (58%)
Submission
6 (23%)
5 (21%)
Decision
12 (46%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson60%
Mateusz Gamrot 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 60% favorite over Mateusz Gamrot in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mateusz Gamrot's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1802 vs 1810), separated by just 8 points.

Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Gamrot 54%.

Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.