Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson74%
Mateusz Rębecki 26%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 74% favorite over Mateusz Rębecki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1811 to 1745, a 66-point edge.
Grant Dawson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Rębecki 81%.
Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rębecki share 1 common opponent: Diego Ferreira.
Grant Dawson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
25-3-1Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
72"Reach66"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mateusz Rębecki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1821
If they lose-14→ 1797
If they win+14→ 1759
If they lose-10→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonMateusz Rębecki