Grant Dawson vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamH2O MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790
If they win+12→ 1806
If they lose-12→ 1782
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson60%
Olivier Aubin-Mercier 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 60% favorite over Olivier Aubin-Mercier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1802 vs 1794), separated by just 8 points.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.
Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.