Grant Dawson vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record19-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafa García carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1811
If they lose-14→ 1787
If they win+19→ 1759
If they lose-13→ 1727
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson75%
Rafa García 25%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 75% favorite over Rafa García in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1801 to 1740, a 61-point edge.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Grant Dawson and Rafa García share 1 common opponent: Jared Gordon.
Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.