Grant Dawson vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafa García carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1812
If they lose-14→ 1788
If they win+18→ 1774
If they lose-14→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Grant Dawson and Rafa García within a point of even.
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1756, a 46-point edge.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Grant Dawson and Rafa García share 1 common opponent: Jared Gordon.
Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.