Grigorii Popov vs Ryo Hirayama
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Hirayama52%
Grigorii Popov 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Hirayama a 52% favorite over Grigorii Popov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Grigorii Popov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1572 vs 1571), separated by just 1 points.
Grigorii Popov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Grigorii Popov finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Hirayama 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
14-8-0Record4-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"Reach-
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamX-Treme Ebina
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1588
If they lose-16→ 1556
If they win+24→ 1595
If they lose-24→ 1547
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Grigorii PopovRyo Hirayama