Combat Edge Intelligence

Guilherme Pat vs Marcus Buchecha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-2-0Record5-3-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
80"Reach80"
265 lbsWeight254 lbs
Lotus ClubTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Guilherme PatNow 1594
If they win+24→ 1618
If they lose-24→ 1570
Marcus BuchechaNow 1593
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
1.70
62%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
52%
Strike defense
51%
0
Takedown avg.
2
TBD
Takedown accuracy
17%
100%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Guilherme PatMarcus Buchecha
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (80%)
2 (33%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Guilherme Pat51%
Marcus Buchecha 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Guilherme Pat a 51% favorite over Marcus Buchecha in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1593), separated by just 1 points.

Guilherme Pat enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Guilherme Pat finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Buchecha 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.