Gunnar Nelson vs Neil Magny
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-6-1Record31-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
72"Reach80"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MjolnirTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Neil Magny is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gunnar Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1727
If they lose-14→ 1695
If they win+10→ 1768
If they lose-14→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gunnar NelsonNeil Magny
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Neil Magny60%
Gunnar Nelson 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Neil Magny a 60% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Neil Magny holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1709, a 49-point edge.
Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Neil Magny 45%.
Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny share 1 common opponent: Gilbert Burns.
Neil Magny carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.