Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson

Jul 19, 2025 · PPV

DateJul 19, 2025

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueSmoothie King Center

BroadcastPPV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 19, 2025 — watch on PPV.

US East (ET): Sat 10:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 7:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 3:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 4:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Neil MagnyThe Haitian Sensation |32-14-0Neil Magny vs Gunnar NelsonGunnar NelsonGunni |19-6-1

Neil MagnyThe Haitian Sensation32-14-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

32-14-0Record19-6-1

39Age38

6'3"Height5'11"

80"Reach72"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Gunnar NelsonGunni19-6-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Neil Magny owns a 59-point Elo edge (great). Gunnar Nelson shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Neil MagnyGunnar Nelson

Recent form

Neil MagnyW L W W L · +7 Elo last 5

WLWWL

Gunnar NelsonL W W L L · -11 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Elo edge

Neil Magny1769+10 last move

Gunnar Nelson1710-16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Neil Magny#22 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1769 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jake Matthews (rated 1755 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Carlos Prates (rated 1716 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +7 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #21 Abubakar Vagaev, 7 ahead of #23 Albert Tumenov.

Gunnar Nelson#65 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1710 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Albert Tumenov (rated 1738 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Demian Maia (rated 1734 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -11 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #64 Taiyilake Nueraji, 2 ahead of #66 Andrey Koshkin.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Neil MagnyNow 1769 · #22 Welterweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1779

Loses by decision-14→ 1755

Gunnar NelsonNow 1710 · #65 Welterweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1729

Loses by decision-13→ 1697

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Neil MagnyvsGunnar Nelson

Submission average

0.27vs1

Takedown accuracy

25%vs52%

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.40vs1.77

Sig. strike accuracy

47%vs61%

Finishing profile

Neil Magnydecision leads 53% of wins

Gunnar Nelsonsubmission leads 68% of wins

Common opponents

Daniel Rodriguez Neil Magny: win · Submission (D'arce Choke) · Nov 5, 2022 Gunnar Nelson: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Mar 18, 2023

Claudio SilvaNeil Magny: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jun 28, 2014Gunnar Nelson: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Mar 19, 2022

Gilbert Burns Neil Magny: loss · Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) · Jan 21, 2023Gunnar Nelson: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Sep 28, 2019

Tale of the tape

Neil MagnyGunnar Nelson

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.40Sig. strikes landed per min1.77

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

47Sig. strike accuracy61

UFC welterweight average : 46%

2.44Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.06

UFC welterweight average : 3.84

52Sig. strike defense49

UFC welterweight average : 53%

2.17Takedown average2

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

25Takedown accuracy52

UFC welterweight average : 30%

55Takedown defense68

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0.27Submission average1

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

10Wins by knockout4

5Wins by submission13

17Wins by decision2

4Losses by knockout1

7Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision5

Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 318 : HOLLOWAY VS POIRIER 3. Neil Magny enters with a 32-14-0 record and Gunnar Nelson enters with a 19-6-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.