Gustavo García vs Valentino Greco
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-4-0Record1-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'0"
-Reach-
152 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Valentino Greco is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Gustavo García carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1445
If they lose-22→ 1397
If they win+22→ 1469
If they lose-26→ 1421
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo GarcíaValentino Greco
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Valentino Greco54%
Gustavo García 46%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Valentino Greco a 54% favorite over Gustavo García in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Valentino Greco holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1447 to 1419, a 28-point edge.
Valentino Greco enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.