Gustavo Oliveira vs Marcirley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-2-0Record15-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'4"
71"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight LesteTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1706 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Gustavo Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Marcirley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1704
If they lose-17→ 1672
If they win+17→ 1676
If they lose-15→ 1644
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo OliveiraMarcirley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo Oliveira55%
Marcirley Alves 45%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo Oliveira a 55% favorite over Marcirley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Gustavo Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1659, a 30-point edge.
Gustavo Oliveira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Marcirley Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gustavo Oliveira finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Marcirley Alves 67%.
Gustavo Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.