Gustavo Oliveira vs Marcirley Alves

Aug 22, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast51%Gustavo Oliveira49%Marcirley AlvesFull forecast

DateAug 22, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueBenchmark International Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, August 22, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Sat 10:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 7:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 3:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 4:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Gustavo OliveiraHeart |13-2-0Gustavo Oliveira vs Marcirley AlvesMarcirley AlvesDurin |15-6-0

Gustavo OliveiraHeart13-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

13-2-0Record15-6-0

30Age27

5'8"Height5'4"

71"Reach66"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Marcirley AlvesDurin15-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Gustavo Oliveira owns a 30-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Gustavo Oliveira and Marcirley Alves across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Gustavo OliveiraMarcirley Alves

Recent form

Gustavo OliveiraW W W W W · +92 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Marcirley AlvesL L W W W · +22 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Gustavo Oliveira1689+21 last move

Marcirley Alves1659-15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Gustavo Oliveira#67 of 343 active Bantamweight fighters · 1689 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Baris Adiguzel (rated 1698 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Patryk Surdyn (rated 1463 at the time): -35.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +92 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #66 Ethyn Ewing, 0 ahead of #68 Rinya Nakamura.

Marcirley Alves#13 of 77 active Catchweight fighters · 1659 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Carlos Soares (rated 1639 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Luan Lacerda (rated 1668 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +22 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #12 Aleksandr Chizov, 0 ahead of #14 Omar El Dafrawy.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

51%Gustavo Oliveira49%Marcirley Alves

Model favoriteGustavo Oliveira

Elo baseline52% for Gustavo Oliveira

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Gustavo OliveiraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Gustavo Oliveira leads the full model at 51%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1689 · 1659Gustavo Oliveira leads by 30 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1550 · 1649Marcirley Alves faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 20 fightsMarcirley Alves has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Gustavo OliveiraNow 1689 · #67 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1704

Loses by decision-17→ 1672

Marcirley AlvesNow 1659 · #13 Catchweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1676

Loses by decision-15→ 1644

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Gustavo OliveiravsMarcirley Alves

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Gustavo OliveiraKO/TKO leads 62% of wins

Marcirley AlvesKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Gustavo OliveiraMarcirley Alves

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 27%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

8Wins by knockout10

4Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision5

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission2

2Losses by decision4

Gustavo Oliveira vs Marcirley Alves is a scheduled Fight card fight on PFL TAMPA : CYBORG VS VIEIRA. Gustavo Oliveira enters with a 13-2-0 record and Marcirley Alves enters with a 15-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.