Hayato Sakurai vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-13-2Record23-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'2"
TBDReach77"
168 lbsWeight155 lbs
Mach DojoTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1713
If they lose-12→ 1689
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hayato SakuraiJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez72%
Hayato Sakurai 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 72% favorite over Hayato Sakurai in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hayato Sakurai's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1701 vs 1699), separated by just 2 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Hayato Sakurai finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.