Combat Edge Intelligence

Hayato Sakurai vs Jonathan Micallef

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-13-2Record10-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
TBDReach77"
168 lbsWeight170 lbs
Mach DojoTeamCombat 1 MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hayato SakuraiNow 1701
If they win+12→ 1713
If they lose-12→ 1689
Jonathan MicallefNow 1703
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.28
Sig. strikes / min
3.96
42%
Strike accuracy
41%
25.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.22
59%
Strike defense
56%
0
Takedown avg.
1.13
TBD
Takedown accuracy
67%
57%
Takedown defense
75%
0
Submission avg.
1.13

Trajectory

Hayato SakuraiJonathan Micallef
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (32%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
10 (26%)
Submission
4 (40%)
16 (42%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Jonathan Micallef75%
Hayato Sakurai 25%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Micallef a 75% favorite over Hayato Sakurai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1701 vs 1703), separated by just 2 points.

Jonathan Micallef enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Hayato Sakurai finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Micallef 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.