Combat Edge Intelligence

Hector Aldana vs Rustam Serbiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-3-0Record9-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
40,5"Reach69"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Torture AthleticsTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hector AldanaNow 1546
If they win+24→ 1570
If they lose-24→ 1522
Rustam SerbievNow 1540
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.59
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
38%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.08
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
60%
Strike defense
TBD
0.93
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Hector AldanaRustam Serbiev
1550202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
2 (40%)
Submission
4 (44%)
1 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Rustam Serbiev60%
Hector Aldana 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Serbiev a 60% favorite over Hector Aldana in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hector Aldana's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1540), separated by just 6 points.

Hector Aldana finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Serbiev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.