Herbert Burns vs Julio Arce
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
73"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight147 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Herbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1635
If they lose-12→ 1603
If they win+9→ 1724
If they lose-15→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Herbert BurnsJulio Arce
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julio Arce72%
Herbert Burns 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 72% favorite over Herbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1615, a 100-point edge.
Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Herbert Burns finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Julio Arce 55%.
Herbert Burns carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.