Combat Edge Intelligence

Herbert Burns vs Julio Arce

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record21-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
73"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight147 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann

What's at stake

Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Herbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Herbert BurnsNow 1607
If they win+20→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1595
Julio ArceNow 1703
If they win+9→ 1712
If they lose-15→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.86
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
37%
Strike accuracy
36%
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
42%
Strike defense
68%
2.94
Takedown avg.
0.46
35%
Takedown accuracy
29%
67%
Takedown defense
96%
1.84
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Herbert BurnsJulio Arce
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
8 (73%)
Submission
5 (24%)
2 (18%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Julio Arce79%
Herbert Burns 21%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 79% favorite over Herbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1607, a 96-point edge.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Herbert Burns finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Julio Arce 57%.

Herbert Burns carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.