Combat Edge Intelligence

Ian Machado Garry vs Rinat Fakhretdinov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-2-0Record24-1-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
74" Reach74"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ian Machado GarryNow 1815
If they win+16→ 1831
If they lose-16→ 1799
Rinat FakhretdinovNow 1811
If they win+16→ 1827
If they lose-16→ 1795

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
54%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.58
53%
Strike defense
54%
0.80
Takedown avg.
3.95
0%
Takedown accuracy
34%
71%
Takedown defense
92%
0.32
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Ian Machado GarryRinat Fakhretdinov
175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (41%)
KO/TKO
12 (50%)
1 (6%)
Submission
6 (25%)
9 (53%)
Decision
6 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Ian Machado Garry62%
Rinat Fakhretdinov 38%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 62% favorite over Rinat Fakhretdinov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1815 vs 1811), separated by just 4 points.

Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Rinat Fakhretdinov 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.