Combat Edge Intelligence

Iasmin Lucindo vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'3"
66″Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Fight HouseTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Iasmin Lucindo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Iasmin LucindoNow 1711
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-20→ 1691
Karolina KowalkiewiczNow 1631
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-9→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
5.54
45%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.51
66%
Strike defense
58%
2.15
Takedown avg.
0.31
60%
Takedown accuracy
23%
55%
Takedown defense
75%
0.18
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Iasmin LucindoKarolina Kowalkiewicz
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
3 (17%)
Submission
3 (19%)
7 (39%)
Decision
12 (75%)

Combat Edge model read

Iasmin Lucindo84%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 16%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Iasmin Lucindo a 84% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Iasmin Lucindo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1631, a 80-point edge.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Iasmin Lucindo finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.

Iasmin Lucindo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.