Ibo Aslan vs Raffael Cerqueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-4-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
77"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Gym 23· 1685 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Ibo Aslan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Raffael Cerqueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1663
If they lose-17→ 1631
If they win+17→ 1646
If they lose-15→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ibo AslanRaffael Cerqueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ibo Aslan62%
Raffael Cerqueira 38%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ibo Aslan a 62% favorite over Raffael Cerqueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ibo Aslan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1629, a 19-point edge.
Ibo Aslan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ibo Aslan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.