Igor Włodarczyk vs Welisson Paiva
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Igor Włodarczyk52%
Welisson Paiva 48%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Igor Włodarczyk a 52% favorite over Welisson Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Igor Włodarczyk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1598 to 1558, a 40-point edge.
Igor Włodarczyk enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Welisson Paiva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Igor Włodarczyk finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Welisson Paiva 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record12-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Czerwony Smok· 1627 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamMaster Kombat
What's at stake
Igor Włodarczyk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Welisson Paiva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1619
If they lose-27→ 1571
If they win+18→ 1576
If they lose-14→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Igor WłodarczykWelisson Paiva