Ilia Topuria vs Jai Herbert
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-1-0Record14-6-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'1"
69"Reach77"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Climent ClubTeamRenegade Jiu Jitsu
What's at stake
Ilia Topuria is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jai Herbert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1838
If they lose-23→ 1806
If they win+23→ 1697
If they lose-9→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1757 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ilia TopuriaJai Herbert
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria88%
Jai Herbert 12%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 88% favorite over Jai Herbert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Ilia Topuria holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1674, a 155-point edge.
Ilia Topuria finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jai Herbert 79%.
Jai Herbert carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.