Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-1-0Record28-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
69"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Climent Club· 1677 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ilia Topuria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1848
If they lose-14→ 1816
If they win+11→ 1880
If they lose-13→ 1856
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1758 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ilia TopuriaJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria51%
Justin Gaethje 49%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 51% favorite over Justin Gaethje in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Gaethje's way (44%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1830, a 39-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ilia Topuria finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje share 2 common opponents: Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.