Ilia Topuria vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-1-0Record29-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
69"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Climent ClubTeamFightspirit Team
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ilia Topuria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1848
If they lose-13→ 1816
If they win+10→ 1900
If they lose-14→ 1876
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1757 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ilia TopuriaKhabib Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria52%
Khabib Nurmagomedov 48%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 52% favorite over Khabib Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Khabib Nurmagomedov's way (41%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1829, a 61-point edge.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ilia Topuria finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.
Ilia Topuria and Khabib Nurmagomedov share 1 common opponent: Justin Gaethje.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.