Ilia Topuria vs Usman Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-1-0Record22-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
69"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Climent Club· 1712 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Usman Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ilia Topuria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1847
If they lose-15→ 1815
If they win+15→ 1864
If they lose-17→ 1832
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1758 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ilia TopuriaUsman Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria58%
Usman Nurmagomedov 42%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 58% favorite over Usman Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Usman Nurmagomedov's way (47%).
Usman Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1849 to 1830, a 19-point edge.
Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ilia Topuria finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 73%.
Usman Nurmagomedov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.