Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record10-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'11"
68"Reach72"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Irene Aldana is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Macy Chiasson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1662
If they lose-18→ 1630
If they win+18→ 1632
If they lose-14→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Irene AldanaMacy Chiasson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Macy Chiasson60%
Irene Aldana 40%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Macy Chiasson a 60% favorite over Irene Aldana in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Irene Aldana's way (45%).
Irene Aldana holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1614, a 34-point edge.
Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Irene Aldana finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Macy Chiasson 60%.
Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson share 4 common opponents: Norma Dumont, Yana Santos, Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington.
Macy Chiasson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.