Combat Edge Intelligence

Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-1-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Eagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamFirst Fight Center

What's at stake

Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Renato Moicano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Islam MakhachevNow 1931
If they win+6→ 1937
If they lose-18→ 1913
Renato MoicanoNow 1743
If they win+18→ 1761
If they lose-6→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1796 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
58%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
61%
Strike defense
60%
3.22
Takedown avg.
1.68
15%
Takedown accuracy
12%
91%
Takedown defense
64%
0.87
Submission avg.
0.56

Trajectory

Islam MakhachevRenato Moicano
170018001900202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (17%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
13 (45%)
Submission
11 (52%)
11 (38%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Islam Makhachev92%
Renato Moicano 8%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Renato Moicano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1743, a 188-point edge.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Islam Makhachev finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.

Renato Moicano carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.