Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Eagles MMATeamFirst Fight Center
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Renato Moicano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1928
If they lose-18→ 1904
If they win+18→ 1761
If they lose-6→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevRenato Moicano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev84%
Renato Moicano 16%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 84% favorite over Renato Moicano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1743, a 179-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.
Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano share 1 common opponent: Drew Dober.
Renato Moicano carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.