Combat Edge Intelligence

Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moisés

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-1-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Thiago Moisés carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Islam MakhachevNow 1922
If they win+5→ 1927
If they lose-19→ 1903
Thiago MoisésNow 1683
If they win+19→ 1702
If they lose-5→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.45
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
58%
Strike accuracy
42%
1.45
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.08
62%
Strike defense
53%
3.10
Takedown avg.
1.31
56%
Takedown accuracy
36%
91%
Takedown defense
53%
0.98
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Islam MakhachevThiago Moisés
170018001900202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (18%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
13 (46%)
Submission
8 (42%)
10 (36%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Islam Makhachev73%
Thiago Moisés 27%Elo baseline: 80%

The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 73% favorite over Thiago Moisés in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).

Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1683, a 239-point edge.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Islam Makhachev finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.