Ismael Bonfim vs Terrance McKinney
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cerrado MMATeamWarrior Camp
What's at stake
Ismael Bonfim is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Terrance McKinney carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1696
If they lose-17→ 1664
If they win+13→ 1674
If they lose-11→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ismael BonfimTerrance McKinney
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Terrance McKinney71%
Ismael Bonfim 29%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 71% favorite over Ismael Bonfim in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ismael Bonfim's way (47%).
Ismael Bonfim holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1681 to 1661, a 20-point edge.
Ismael Bonfim enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ismael Bonfim finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.
Ismael Bonfim and Terrance McKinney share 1 common opponent: Nazim Sadykhov.
Terrance McKinney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.