Ismail Naurdiev vs Mario Filipe de Sousa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-8-0Record19-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'5"
74"Reach45,0"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Top Team SalzburgTeamCaes do Ringue
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ismail NaurdievMario Filipe de Sousa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ismail Naurdiev60%
Mario Filipe de Sousa 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ismail Naurdiev a 60% favorite over Mario Filipe de Sousa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mario Filipe de Sousa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1685), separated by just 2 points.
Ismail Naurdiev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mario Filipe de Sousa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ismail Naurdiev finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mario Filipe de Sousa 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.