Combat Edge Intelligence

Israel Adesanya vs Rob Wilkinson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-6-0Record20-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach80"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamHybrid Training Centre

What's at stake

Israel Adesanya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rob Wilkinson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Israel AdesanyaNow 1761
If they win+10→ 1771
If they lose-14→ 1747
Rob WilkinsonNow 1707
If they win+18→ 1725
If they lose-14→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.02
Sig. strikes / min
2.74
48%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.66
56%
Strike defense
39%
0.05
Takedown avg.
4.47
11%
Takedown accuracy
25%
77%
Takedown defense
0%
0.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Israel AdesanyaRob Wilkinson
1700175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

16 (67%)
KO/TKO
11 (55%)
0 (0%)
Submission
7 (35%)
8 (33%)
Decision
2 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Israel Adesanya62%
Rob Wilkinson 38%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Israel Adesanya a 62% favorite over Rob Wilkinson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Israel Adesanya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1761 to 1707, a 54-point edge.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rob Wilkinson 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.