Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record16-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height5'10"
80"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Israel Adesanya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Yoel Romero carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1772
If they lose-13→ 1748
If they win+17→ 1748
If they lose-15→ 1716
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel AdesanyaYoel Romero
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Israel Adesanya70%
Yoel Romero 30%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Israel Adesanya a 70% favorite over Yoel Romero in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Israel Adesanya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1761 to 1731, a 30-point edge.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Yoel Romero 81%.
Israel Adesanya and Yoel Romero share 1 common opponent: Robert Whittaker.
Israel Adesanya carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.