Ivan Erslan vs Karl Roberson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record9-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
72"Reach74"
206 lbsWeight184 lbs
American Top Team ZagrebTeamKiller B Combat Sports Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ivan ErslanKarl Roberson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ivan Erslan59%
Karl Roberson 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Erslan a 59% favorite over Karl Roberson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Karl Roberson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1607), separated by just 2 points.
Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ivan Erslan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Karl Roberson 67%.
Karl Roberson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.