Combat Edge Intelligence

Ivan Erslan vs Patrick Cummins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record10-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
72"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top Team ZagrebTeamReign MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ivan ErslanNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Patrick CumminsNow 1602
If they win+16→ 1618
If they lose-16→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.26
46%
Strike accuracy
51%
5.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.35
54%
Strike defense
56%
0.45
Takedown avg.
4.49
20%
Takedown accuracy
41%
62%
Takedown defense
29%
0
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Ivan ErslanPatrick Cummins
16001650201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
1 (7%)
Submission
2 (20%)
4 (27%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Ivan Erslan66%
Patrick Cummins 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Erslan a 66% favorite over Patrick Cummins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1602), separated by just 3 points.

Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ivan Erslan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Cummins 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.