Combat Edge Intelligence

Ivan Erslan vs Wagner Prado

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Wagner Prado
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Wagner Prado

“Caldeirao”

18-8-1Light HeavyweightACA

1599Solid

Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record18-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
72"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top Team ZagrebTeamBrazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ivan ErslanNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Wagner PradoNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.55
Sig. strikes / min
1.72
46%
Strike accuracy
40%
5.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
54%
Strike defense
51%
0.45
Takedown avg.
0
20%
Takedown accuracy
0%
62%
Takedown defense
22%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ivan ErslanWagner Prado
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
16 (89%)
1 (7%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (27%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Ivan Erslan67%
Wagner Prado 33%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Erslan a 67% favorite over Wagner Prado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1599), separated by just 5 points.

Ivan Erslan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Prado 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.