Jacinta Austin vs Tatsumitsu Wada
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Tatsumitsu Wada53%
Jacinta Austin 47%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatsumitsu Wada a 53% favorite over Jacinta Austin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Tatsumitsu Wada holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1618, a 27-point edge.
Jacinta Austin finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Tatsumitsu Wada 38%.
Tatsumitsu Wada carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record26-14-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'7"
65"Reach69.3"
116 lbsWeight135 lbs
Igor MMA AcademyTeamFreelance· 1571 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Tatsumitsu Wada is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jacinta Austin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1635
If they lose-15→ 1603
If they win+11→ 1656
If they lose-13→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jacinta AustinTatsumitsu Wada