Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-0Record16-3-1
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
77"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Jack Hermansson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Myktybek Orolbai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1743
If they lose-13→ 1719
If they win+17→ 1732
If they lose-15→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jack HermanssonMyktybek Orolbai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jack Hermansson58%
Myktybek Orolbai 42%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Jack Hermansson a 58% favorite over Myktybek Orolbai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Jack Hermansson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1732 to 1715, a 17-point edge.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jack Hermansson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.
Jack Hermansson and Myktybek Orolbai share 1 common opponent: Chris Curtis.
Jack Hermansson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.