Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
24-10-0Record16-3-1
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
77"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1733
If they lose-12→ 1709
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jack HermanssonMyktybek Orolbai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Myktybek Orolbai84%
Jack Hermansson 16%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Myktybek Orolbai a 84% favorite over Jack Hermansson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jack Hermansson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1721 vs 1714), separated by just 7 points.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jack Hermansson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.
Jack Hermansson and Myktybek Orolbai share 1 common opponent: Chris Curtis.
Jack Hermansson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.