Jack Hermansson vs Ronaldo Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Frontline AcademyTeamFusion X-Cel Performance
What's at stake
Ronaldo Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jack Hermansson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1734
If they lose-11→ 1710
If they win+11→ 1760
If they lose-13→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jack HermanssonRonaldo Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jack Hermansson70%
Ronaldo Souza 30%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Jack Hermansson a 70% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ronaldo Souza's way (46%).
Ronaldo Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1721, a 28-point edge.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jack Hermansson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.
Jack Hermansson and Ronaldo Souza share 1 common opponent: Kelvin Gastelum.
Jack Hermansson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.