Jacob Pais vs Noah Hermosillo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-1-0Record1-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
73"Reach-
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Noah Hermosillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Jacob Pais carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1529
If they lose-22→ 1481
If they win+22→ 1548
If they lose-26→ 1500
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jacob PaisNoah Hermosillo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Noah Hermosillo56%
Jacob Pais 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Noah Hermosillo a 56% favorite over Jacob Pais in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Noah Hermosillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1526 to 1503, a 23-point edge.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.