Jacob Volkmann vs Paul Kelly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-0Record15-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
What's at stake
Jacob Volkmann is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paul Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1639
If they lose-15→ 1615
If they win+20→ 1555
If they lose-12→ 1523
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jacob VolkmannPaul Kelly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jacob Volkmann61%
Paul Kelly 39%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jacob Volkmann a 61% favorite over Paul Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jacob Volkmann holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1535, a 95-point edge.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jacob Volkmann finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Paul Kelly 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.