Combat Edge Intelligence

Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-0-0Record11-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'7"
72"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamGrove City BJJ

What's at stake

Jacobe Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Josiah Harrell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jacobe SmithNow 1735
If they win+14→ 1749
If they lose-18→ 1717
Josiah HarrellNow 1700
If they win+18→ 1718
If they lose-14→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.89
Sig. strikes / min
0
68%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
48%
Strike defense
TBD
7.78
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.71
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jacobe SmithJosiah Harrell
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (75%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (36%)
2 (17%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Jacobe Smith56%
Josiah Harrell 44%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Jacobe Smith a 56% favorite over Josiah Harrell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Jacobe Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1700, a 35-point edge.

Jacobe Smith enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Jacobe Smith finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Josiah Harrell 91%.

Jacobe Smith carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.