Combat Edge Intelligence

Jacobe Smith vs Pawel Pawlak

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-0-0Record23-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fortis MMATeamOctopus Lodz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jacobe SmithNow 1734
If they win+16→ 1750
If they lose-16→ 1718
Pawel PawlakNow 1732
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.89
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
68%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.22
48%
Strike defense
54%
7.78
Takedown avg.
1
0%
Takedown accuracy
38%
100%
Takedown defense
70%
0.71
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jacobe SmithPawel Pawlak
16501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (75%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
1 (8%)
Submission
3 (13%)
2 (17%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Jacobe Smith71%
Pawel Pawlak 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jacobe Smith a 71% favorite over Pawel Pawlak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1734 vs 1732), separated by just 2 points.

Jacobe Smith enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Pawel Pawlak enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Jacobe Smith finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Pawel Pawlak 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.