Jafel Filho vs Lucas Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'2"
68"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRenovacao Coari Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jafel FilhoLucas Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Rocha52%
Jafel Filho 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 52% favorite over Jafel Filho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1678), separated by just 9 points.
Jafel Filho finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.
Jafel Filho and Lucas Rocha share 1 common opponent: Clayton Carpenter.
Jafel Filho carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.