Jafel Filho vs Lucas Rocha

Apr 25, 2026 · PARAMOUNT +

DateApr 25, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT +

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, April 25, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT +.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Jafel FilhoPastor |17-5-0Jafel Filho vs Lucas RochaLucas RochaFenomeno |18-2-0

Jafel FilhoPastor17-5-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

17-5-0Record18-2-0

33Age26

5'7"Height5'2"

68"Reach64"

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Lucas RochaFenomeno18-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Lucas Rocha owns a 27-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Jafel Filho and Lucas Rocha across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jafel FilhoLucas Rocha

Recent form

Jafel FilhoL W L W W · +18 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Lucas RochaW L W W W · +56 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Jafel Filho1670-19 last move

Lucas Rocha1697+14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jafel Filho#93 of 343 active Bantamweight fighters · 1670 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Vinicius Salvador (rated 1601 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Cody Durden (rated 1624 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +18 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #92 Cody Garbrandt, 0 ahead of #94 Magomed Magomedov.

Lucas Rocha#28 of 213 active Flyweight fighters · 1697 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Eduardo Castro (rated 1652 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Alan Gabriel (rated 1454 at the time): -42.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +56 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #27 Keito Yamakita, 0 ahead of #29 Rashid Vagabov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Jafel FilhoNow 1670 · #93 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1687

Loses by decision-15→ 1655

Lucas RochaNow 1697 · #28 Flyweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1712

Loses by decision-17→ 1680

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jafel FilhovsLucas Rocha

Submission average

2.24vs0

Sig. strikes landed per min

1.85vs5.09

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

1.62vs3.67

Takedown accuracy

45%vs75%

Finishing profile

Jafel Filhosubmission leads 65% of wins

Lucas RochaKO/TKO leads 56% of wins

Common opponents

Clayton Carpenter Jafel Filho: win · Submission (Kimura) · Oct 11, 2025 Lucas Rocha: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Oct 12, 2024

Tale of the tape

Jafel FilhoLucas Rocha

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.85Sig. strikes landed per min5.09

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

42Sig. strike accuracy50

UFC flyweight average : 44%

1.62Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.67

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

50Sig. strike defense56

UFC flyweight average : 55%

2.52Takedown average1.64

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

45Takedown accuracy75

UFC flyweight average : 26%

67Takedown defense76

UFC flyweight average : 57%

2.24Submission average0

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

5Wins by knockout10

11Wins by submission4

1Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision0

Jafel Filho vs Lucas Rocha is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : STERLING VS ZALAL. Jafel Filho enters with a 17-5-0 record and Lucas Rocha enters with a 18-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.