Jai Herbert vs Mandel Nallo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-1Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'0"
77"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Renegade Jiu JitsuTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Jai Herbert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mandel Nallo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1689
If they lose-18→ 1657
If they win+18→ 1652
If they lose-14→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jai HerbertMandel Nallo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jai Herbert76%
Mandel Nallo 24%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jai Herbert a 76% favorite over Mandel Nallo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jai Herbert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1634, a 41-point edge.
Jai Herbert finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Mandel Nallo 100%.
Jai Herbert carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.