Jair Perez vs Lucas Ganin
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Ganin52%
Jair Perez 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Ganin a 52% favorite over Jair Perez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jair Perez's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1648 vs 1635), separated by just 13 points.
Jair Perez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lucas Ganin enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jair Perez finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Ganin 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record9-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamIS 360 Sport Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+15→ 1663
If they lose-17→ 1631
If they win+17→ 1652
If they lose-15→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jair PerezLucas Ganin